Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — As of 19 June 2025, the US dollar has declined to 12,613 Uzbek soums, marking a 0.21% appreciation of the national currency over the past week. The previous week, the soum had gained 1.34%. Since the beginning of the year, the Uzbek currency has strengthened against the US dollar by 2.26%.

One of the key drivers behind the soum’s resilience remains the growing inflow of foreign currency earnings. This includes a record volume of remittances from labor migrants — US$3.3 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up 32% year-on-year — and strong export performance, including gold. These factors have significantly boosted the country’s foreign currency liquidity. At the same time, imports have shown little growth, resulting in a stable and positive trade balance.

Domestic monetary policy is also exerting pressure on the dollar. In March, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan raised the key interest rate to 14%, making investments in soum-denominated assets more attractive. Lending costs have remained unchanged since then.

Another factor supporting the soum is its correlation with the Russian ruble and the country’s strong trade ties. The ruble’s appreciation and global weakness in the US dollar have provided additional support to the Uzbek currency. Moreover, the high level of Uzbekistan’s gold and foreign currency reserves — nearly US$50 billion — gives the Central Bank the capacity to smooth out exchange rate volatility if necessary.

In the coming week of June, the USD/UZS pair is expected to remain within the range of 12,550–12,800.

Anna Bodrova, Analyst at Alpari