Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has published its macroeconomic outlook for Uzbekistan for the first half of 2025, projecting GDP growth at 6.7%, within a range of 6.5% to 6.8%.

The forecast is based on advanced analytical techniques, particularly nowcasting — a high-precision short-term forecasting model that processes big data and leverages international experience. This method allows for real-time assessment of economic conditions and the development of timely policy scenarios.

Key Trends in the First Half of 2025

Despite persistent global challenges, Uzbekistan’s economy continues to show robust growth. According to the Statistics Agency, GDP expanded by 6.8% in Q1 2025, driven mainly by:

Market services: +12.6%

Construction activity: +10.8%

Retail trade: +9.5%

Industrial production: +6.5%

Household income: +9.8%

Foreign trade dynamics have also improved. Between January and April 2025, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover reached US$24.6 billion (up 16.3%). Exports surged 35.1% to US$11.9 billion, while imports grew by just 2.9%. This narrowed the trade deficit to –US$846 million, down from –US$3.6 billion a year earlier.

Business Climate and Investments

The Business Activity Index (BAI), calculated by CERR, reached 1,099 points in April 2025, up 9.9% from March and 22.3% higher year-on-year.

Investment momentum remains strong, with over UZS 120 trillion in fixed capital investment between January and March, reflecting rapid development in infrastructure and industrial projects.

Additional Economic Indicators

To enhance real-time analysis, CERR incorporates alternative data sources, such as trends in internet search behavior. From January to April 2025, online interest grew in key economic categories:

“Shopping”: +7.6%

“Business & Industry”: +4.1%

“Finance”: +3.7%

These trends indicate rising consumer and entrepreneurial activity.

International Forecasts

CERR’s projections align with those of international financial institutions:

Asian Development Bank: 6.6%

International Monetary Fund: 5.9%

World Bank: 5.9%

Experts attribute Uzbekistan’s continued growth to rising real incomes, domestic demand, investment activity, and industrial expansion.

The positive trajectory supports the country’s broader goal of sustainable and inclusive economic development amid global uncertainties.